Football tips today, Wednesday 4 November 2026

The table lists the 14 picks in kick-off order with chance, fair odds, best price and the book offering it. Prices refresh every 2 hours before kick-off and the result column fills within 10 minutes of each final whistle.

The selection for 4 November 2026 started from 94 fixtures in 35 competitions, of which 82 carried a priced 1X2 market. For each priced match the model publishes chances for 1X2, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. The pick is the selection with the highest chance that also beats the best available price.

Football tips today follow 1 rule set, with no manual changes. Picks are ranked by chance, with a bonus for positive edge and for top-tier competitions, and capped at 2 per league. The strongest pick today is under 2.5 goals in Red Arrows v Nkwazi at a 73% chance and a best price of 1.32.

Model chance is the probability the model gives the selection, written as a percentage. Fair odds equal 1 divided by that chance, so a 72% chance gives fair odds of 1.39. Edge is the gap between the best price and the fair price: a best price of 1.44 against fair odds of 1.39 gives an edge of +3.6%.

A negative edge means the market pays less than the model expects, and those picks sit lower in the list. The 3 figures sit on every ticket in the same order, so 2 picks compare at a glance. Across today's 14 picks the average edge is -3.5%, and 1 picks carry a positive edge.

The best price is the highest decimal odds for the pick among partner books at the last refresh, which happens every 2 hours before kick-off. The button beside each pick opens that book through a tracked link. For the top pick the best price of 1.32 comes from 22bet, with 4 partner prices compared.

Prices move until kick-off, so the figure on the ticket and the figure at the book differ by a tick or two late in the day. The list itself freezes when the first pick kicks off; after that only prices and results update. Every link to a book is marked as sponsored and opens in a new tab.

Every pick is settled from the final score within 10 minutes of full time. 1X2 picks settle on the 90-minute result, totals and both-teams-to-score picks on the full-time score, and postponed or abandoned matches are voided. A void pick counts as 0 in the record and keeps its place on the day's page.

Over the last 7 days the record is 16 wins and 10 losses (62%). Over the last 30 days it is 16 wins and 10 losses, a 62% hit rate and a flat-stake return of -4.16 units on 26 settled picks.

Flat-stake return assumes 1 unit on every pick at the best price shown: a win at 1.44 adds 0.44, a loss takes 1.00 and a void adds 0. The hit rate counts wins against settled picks only, so a day with 14 picks and 2 voids settles on 12.

3 markets are covered: match result (1X2), over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. These are the 3 markets every partner book prices for every match, so the best-price comparison is always like for like. Thresholds: a 1X2 pick needs a chance of 54% or more, a totals or BTTS pick needs 60% or more.

Each market uses the same 2-hour price refresh and the same best-price rule across partner books. Today's list splits into 4 match-result picks, 7 totals picks and 3 both-teams-to-score picks. Niche markets such as corners or cards are left out because fewer books price them.

Kick-off times are converted to your local time zone in the browser; the server works in UTC. The first pick today kicks off at 13:00 UTC and the last at 23:00 UTC. Matches already in play show a live minute instead of a time, and finished matches show FT with the result badge.

The digest for the next day is built as soon as 20 of its matches carry opening prices, and can change until its first kick-off. Archived days keep every pick, price and result at a dated address, so the record stays readable. A pick made on day 1 and settled on day 2 stays on the page for day 1.